Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.118340 0.131806 0.145752 0.161242 0.177932 0.195342 0.214843
2024-10-06 0.100235 0.120521 0.142698 0.168597 0.197864 0.229764 0.267014
2024-10-13 0.085457 0.110073 0.138298 0.172704 0.213149 0.258822 0.313928
2024-10-20 0.073827 0.101249 0.134066 0.175592 0.226069 0.284773 0.357508
2024-10-27 0.064540 0.093809 0.130231 0.177874 0.237500 0.308605 0.398689
2024-11-03 0.061636 0.093871 0.135243 0.190776 0.261834 0.348180 0.459392
2024-11-10 0.054483 0.087397 0.131097 0.191404 0.270406 0.368304 0.496556
2024-11-17 0.049323 0.083006 0.129134 0.194390 0.281660 0.391664 0.537891
2024-11-24 0.044145 0.077981 0.125770 0.195042 0.289550 0.410626 0.573803
2024-12-01 0.042730 0.078318 0.129762 0.205686 0.310793 0.447039 0.632485
2024-12-08 0.041375 0.078556 0.133498 0.215961 0.331672 0.483289 0.691521
2024-12-15 0.037685 0.074724 0.130944 0.217048 0.339822 0.502748 0.728879
2024-12-22 0.033087 0.069177 0.125755 0.214510 0.343460 0.517115 0.761068
2024-12-29 0.031845 0.069178 0.129070 0.224620 0.365262 0.556586 0.827587
2025-01-05 0.029666 0.067326 0.129337 0.230141 0.380664 0.587705 0.883611
2025-01-12 0.027336 0.064935 0.128530 0.233904 0.393538 0.615544 0.935670
2025-01-19 0.025075 0.062404 0.127272 0.236810 0.405119 0.641715 0.985821
2025-01-26 0.025343 0.064736 0.134228 0.252798 0.436396 0.695983 1.075276
2025-02-02 0.022996 0.061647 0.131733 0.253588 0.444905 0.718221 1.120865
2025-02-09 0.021331 0.059738 0.131111 0.257278 0.457772 0.746775 1.175548
2025-02-16 0.019397 0.057016 0.128835 0.258085 0.466149 0.768933 1.221520
2025-02-23 0.019325 0.058332 0.133895 0.271195 0.493742 0.819238 1.307689
2025-03-02 0.019179 0.059454 0.138612 0.283817 0.520775 0.869059 1.393718